Incredibly accurate odds of who’s making it to the CFP

Championship weekend is among us which means the mayhem of who gets into the College Football Playoff and who doesn’t is at an all-time high. This year in particular is incredibly interesting because we literally have no idea who is going to get in. Does a one-loss ‘Bama overtake an undefeated Wisconsin? Probably not, but you literally never know with the committee.

So, with everyone giving their take on which teams will be in, I’ve decided it’s my turn to give my expert analysis on the chance each contender has to make it to the CFP.



Chance of making it to CFP: Probably, but also maybe not.

Reason: Clemson currently holds the No.1 spot in the rankings because they are named Clemson. Seriously, this team did have a good early season win over Auburn and they’ve played well against the ACC competition, but there is no way the should be the number one overall team at the moment. Essentially, their CFP birth comes down to the game against Miami. If they win, they are in. If they lose, they could possibly still be in but they also might not be.

I know, that really is some incredible analysis and I promise you there will be more where that came from. Yet, is a Clemson loss really going to knock them out? Most likely, but what if other teams lose and open up a spot for them to slip back in? What if the committee thinks a Miami loss to Pitt is worse than Clemson’s losses? What if the CFP playoff NEEDS those bright orange uniforms on the national stage?

In all seriousness, Clemson does have a strong shot of making the playoffs as long as quarterback Kelly Bryant plays well and limits the turnovers against the Miami defense. The Tiger’s ‘D’ is strong enough to do most of the heavy lifting, meaning there is a good chance we see Dabo and company back competing for another title.



Chance of making it to CFP: Pretty likely

It’s simple for the Tigers; win and they are in. If you told me a month ago that Auburn had a strong chance of making it to the playoffs, I probably would have believed you because I am super gullible, but I also would have laughed in your face.

The SEC has always been Alabama’s equal when it hasn’t been (yeah, think about that one for a second). Auburn’s big wins over Georgia and the Crimson Tide have given them the opportunity to control their own destiny.

I actually think Auburn will beat Georgia in the SEC Championship and punch their ticket to the CFP. The Tigers have an incredibly stout defense, one that can shut down the Georgia running game and cause problems for Jake Fromm. Their two big wins may have come at home and this one will feel more like an away game since it takes place in Atlanta, but I still think Auburn comes out on top.



Chance they make it to the CFP: THEY ARE IN

This is my not so hot take that could look really bad in two days. Oklahoma is going to beat TCU and give us a few more chances to see Baker Mayfield and there is no way you can argue against it. The Sooners already took down TCU once this season and now that Baker Mayfield has returned from the dead, or more accurately a five minute benching, there is no stopping this team.

Mayfield may be a Brown or a Jet in a few months, so he knows this could be his only chance to win a title and I expect him to give it all he’s got.  



Chance they make it to the CFP: If they win they should be in, but also they may still not be because people hate Wisconsin. Also, they will probably lose to Ohio State and be out anyways so I would say they have a 50/50 chance.

I basically just summed up all you need to now with that prediction because it is the truth. If the Badgers take down Ohio State and finish the season as undefeated Big Ten Champions, I do not understand how people could leave them out.

With that being said, their weak schedule and unappealing play style screams, “Put Bama in instead of us.” Also, there is a good chance they lose to Ohio State because that is the most Wisconsin thing Wisconsin could do.



Chance they make it to the CFP: Actually pretty likely

Alabama literally has to do nothing this weekend and they still have a good chance of making it to the CFP. If any of the top four teams lose, Bama seems like the obvious choice to slide up.

Personally, I really hope this does not happen. Watching Alabama play is sometimes like watching paint dry (If that paint was an insanely dominant team that took the fun out of College Football). Also, I just don’t think they deserve it this year. No big wins and a relatively easy schedule just doesn’t do it for me. But that’s why I’m typing this from a twin-sized bed in a dorm and not sitting in the committee room.



Chance they make it to the CFP: Not likely

Georgia, like many other teams, is in the win and in situation. However, I am still giving them just a slim chance at actually making it to the CFP because I do not think they will beat Auburn. Sure, they beat Notre Dame, but it was early in the season before the Irish hit their stride. They also got dominated by Auburn just a few weeks ago.

I’m not saying it is impossible for them to win, but in a battle of a tiger against a dog, I am going to have to go with the one that can kill people over the one that takes poops on the neighbor’s lawn.



Chance they make it to the CFP: No clue

If Miami beats Clemson, is that enough to ignore their loss to Pitt? Does an Ohio State win also help their chances? No seriously, I am asking you because I have no idea if Miami still has a legitimate chance to get in. A few weeks ago we were all screaming that ‘The U’ was back, but that may have to wait one more year.

All I know is that I need to see that turnover chain in a National Championship game, it is a must.

Ohio State


Chance they make it to the CFP: They really shouldn’t have a chance but they are Ohio State so they’ll probably be in it.

If the committee can find anyway to put Ohio State into the CFP, they are going to do it. If you think they have no reason to put the Buckeyes in then you clearly have no idea how much better Urban Meyer and Big Nut can make ESPN’s ratings. If Ohio State wins, there will be a legitimate argument for them to make it into the top four.

Penn State


Chance they make it to the CFP: No chance

Ya blew it Penn State, you really blew it.



Chance they make it to the CFP: *Insert “So you’re telling me there’s a chance” meme*


Even with a conference title, USC is a long shot to make it in, but they still have a very slim chance. However, they most likely will not which means that Sam Darnold will have to decide whether he comes back for another year or plays for the Browns. Tough choice (this is sarcastic).

Right now, I think the CFP will consist of Clemson, Auburn, Oklahoma and Wisconsin. Real original, I know. So, who do you think gets in?


1 comment on “Incredibly accurate odds of who’s making it to the CFP

  1. warningtrack

    Go Buckeyes, Urban Meyer and BIG NUT! Love that guy.


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